Polls. Intellectuals. Be Wary
This pre-election time is all academic. All the talk is academic. These campaigns are all “academic”, and “academic” is the same as “intellectual”. (The proof is in the pudding and the proof of the pudding is in the tasting.) Academics are intellectuals and see the world as more complex than the less intellectual.
Note that we have one candidate recognized for his intellect and touted for his intellectual edge, with especial note taken of his language and a more elevated diction. In my opinion, the “intellectual” label has been the kiss of death for such candidates (Adlai Stevenson against Eisenhower), and the electorate has usually preferred the anti-intellectual (Bush against Gore and Kerry). I know, I know, one case does not prove the generalization. But there’s probably a book on the topic.
I would never sell academics short. I was one. Academic works must yield conclusions that have been tested and verified to a high degree of significance. This campaign has not had its ultimate verification (“tasting”) in the test of the election (the “pudding”), which will tell us much about the candidates (the President-elect) as well as about the electorate (his or her people). More academic studies and books will be written by academics.
Polls are academic exercises, like campaigns. All we ever know about the polls are the results. We may get a “margin of error”—what’s that!?. We do not ever get the operations that produced the results, the sampling technique and other controls. The deliberative mind would like to know those operations. They say the devil is in the details, but who has time for that, as they must think.
Too much of this campaign proccess is in the hands of the journalists who rely on the polls to make their stories about the election campaign. They do read the works of the intellectuals (historians, political scientists, sociologists); however, the difference is, the journalists are called to recycle the academic stuff as panelists on the television roundtables, and the original sources are much ignored, or overlayed with reporter bias.